966
Title: Oil Price Projection Model
Serial number: 03/2025
Author(s): Farid Muradzada, Khazan Bakhshaliyev
Language: Azerbaijani
Date: 2025
Abstract: This study develops a forecasting framework for Brent crude oil prices based on the fundamental drivers of the global oil market, namely demand, supply, and market expectations. The estimation is conducted using quarterly time-series data covering the period 1994–2025 and employs a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results indicate that the proposed model demonstrates strong forecast performance under conditions of high oil price volatility. The forecasting error of the model is lower than that of benchmark models. Furthermore, the findings confirm that geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and uncertainty in global energy markets have a significant impact on oil price dynamics through oil futures prices.
Key words: Brent crude oil price, oil price forecasting, VAR model
JEL classification: C53, Q43, Q47.
