Working papers cover researches by Central Bank employees. The main goal of working paper series is to stimulate discussions around topics. Papers related opinions and proposals should be addressed to authors. Considering copyright nuances, only the original texts of articles (without translation) are posted here.

2025

02/2025. Overnight Interbank Rate Volatility Across Liquidity States: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

01/2025. Estimating Potential Non-Oil GDP in Azerbaijan

2024

04/2024. Development of Short-term Forecasting Models for Non-oil GDP

03/2024. Forecasting of Global Food Prices Adjusted for Import Weights

02/2024.Decomposition of inflation in Azerbaijan into supply and demand components based on supermarket data

01/2024. Quarterly Projection Model of Azerbaijan (AzIM 1.0)

2023

04/2023. Short-term inflation forecasting models with Bayesian VAR: Evidence from Azerbaijan

03/2023. The relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth: the case of Azerbaijan

02/2023. Estimating Natural Rate of Interest. The Case for Azerbaijan

01/2023. The impact of real effective exchange rate on non-oil exports in Azerbaijan

2022

02/2022. Response of Inflation to the Climate Stress: Evidence from Azerbaijan

01/2022. Using National Payment System Data to Nowcast Economic Activity in Azerbaijan

2021

02/2021. Disentangling the effect of supply and demand factors on bank lending. Evidence from Bank Lending Survey in Azerbaijan

01/2021. Nowcasting Household Consumption in Azerbaijan

2020

02/2020. Estimation and forecast of the current account balance components in Azerbaijan

01/2020. Forecasting Models for Components of the Consumer Price Index in Azerbaijan

2019

03/2019. Modeling Azerbaijan’s Inflation and Output Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Model

02/2019. Estimation of Equilibrium Level of Real Effective Exchange Rate of Azerbaijan Using Behavioral Effective Exchange Rate Model

01/2019. Do monetary and fiscal policies interact in oil-exporting countries? Evidence from Azerbaijan

2018

02/2018. The effects of external shocks on Azerbaijan economy

01/2018. Oil Prices and Inflation: Identifying Channels for Oil Exporters

2017

05/2017. Financial ratios and the prediction of bankruptcy

04/2017. Structural Budget Balances in Oil-rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia

03/2017. Are fiscal rules helpful in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations?

02/2017. Exchange rate elasticity of exports and the role of institutions

01/2017. The exchange rate pass-through to CPI inflation and its components in Azerbaijan

2016

09/2016. Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia

08/2016. A small scale forecasting and simulation model for Azerbaijan (FORSAZ)

07/2016. Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan

05/2016. Government spending effectiveness and the quality of fiscal institutions

04/2016. Banking Competition and Financial Stability: Evidence from CISCountries

03/2016. Determinants of Depositors’ Behaviour: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates

02/2016. The Labor Market in Azerbaijan

01/2016. Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?

2015

08/2015. Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: problems and practical issues

07/2015. Operational framework of inflation targeting: what promises do country experiences make to the CBAR?

06/2015. Extracting risk-neutral probability distribution from Brent oil options

05/2015. Beating random walk: “hard times” for forecasting inflation in post‐oil boom years?

04/2015. The relationship between economic growth and income inequality and its institutional aspects

03/2015. Indicator based forecasting of business cycles in Azerbaijan

02/2015. Financial intermediation and economic growth

01/2015. Budget expenditures and Input-Output model

2014

15/2014. A DSGE model for Azerbaijan: estimation and forecasting

14/2014. Wealth effects in post-transition countries: Evidence from Azerbaijan

13/2014. Assessment of the optimal level of foreign exchange reserves

12/2014. Impact of non-cash payments to economic growth

11/2014. Credit risks: The Z-Quantity approach

10/2014. Demand and exchange rate elasticity of import and export

09/2014. Theoretical-empirical analysis of the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth

08/2014. Currency substitution in an oil-rich CIS country: The case of Azerbaijan

07/2014. Measurement of interest rate risk in the banking system

06/2014. The impact of transaction costs on economic development

05/2014. The impact of social capital on the economy

04/2014. Economic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: is there a common oil business cycle?

03/2014. Estimation of exchange rate risk on the basis of the Value At Risk (VAR) model

02/2014. Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis

01/2014. Current account surplus, fiscal policy and money market equilibrium

2013

21/2013. Azerbaijan`s advantages in transforming into high income country

20/2013. The relation between the cashless money supply and interest rates

19/2013. Exchange rate risk measurement: Value at Risk approach

18/2013. Strategic communication in central banks

17/2013. Macro and microprudential regulatory policy: goals and tools

16/2013. Exchange rate regimes in developing countries and Azerbaijan experience

15/2013. Inflation targeting: core or headline inflation?

14/2013. Price indices in the real estate market

13/2013. The impact of financial intermediation indicators on financial depth in the banking system

12/2013. The impact of bank capital on the profitability and risk

11/2013. The management of foreign exchange reserves: new approaches

10/2013. Optimal fiscal rules in resource-rich economies

09/2013. Monetary policy and global challenges

08/2013. Game theory: behavioral models of monetary and fiscal policies

07/2013. The impact of the exchange rate on the real sector

06/2013. Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Azerbaijan

05/2013. The role of economic models in monetary policy

04/2013. Empirical models of economic growth

03/2013. Estimation of optimal inflation rate

02/2013. Estimation of the price level in the real estate market

01/2013. Banking crises: assessment methodologies